Peramalan Penjualan Sertifikat Laik Operasi (SLO) Dengan Metode Arima Untuk Pengambilan Keputusan Manajemen Bisnis Di Pt Jasa Kelistrikan Indonesia

Abstract

The number of PLN customers is increasing every year. PT Jasa Kelistrikan Indonesia is a PT authorized to issue a Certificate of Operation Eligibility which is used as evidence that the building that already has the SLO is eligible for electricity from PLN. The results of the interview, PT JKI experienced a decrease in SLO sales. This study aims to forecast sales from the Certificate of Operation Worthiness (SLO) at PT Jasa Electricity Indonesia. The results of the forecasting are then used as variables in making business management decisions from the sale of SLO at PT JKI. Forecasting uses the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) algorithm. The data used in this study uses 12-month SLO sales data in 2020 in the Banyuwangi area. ARIMA modeling is done by iterating on the parameters of Autoregressive (p), Integrated (d) and Moving Average (q) of ARIMA (p,d,q) with range p (0-7), range d (0-3) and range q (0-7) with a total of 256 combinations of parameters which then evaluate the RMSE of each parameter of the model being tested. The model used for forecasting is the model that has the smallest RMSE value, namely ARIMA (4,2,6) with an RMSE value of 3.487744 SLO Sheets. The predicted results of SLO sales in January 2022 and February 2022 were 131 and 144 SLO sheets.